Most extreme year yet? 2024’s climate catastrophes affected billions, and scientists say it’s just the beginning

BEIJING — Mother Nature unleashed her fury in 2024, delivering a stark wake-up call about our changing climate. From persistent droughts across southern Africa to devastating floods in Spain, extreme weather events affected billions of people worldwide, painting a troubling picture of what may become the new normal in a warming world.

According to a comprehensive analysis published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2024 joined 2023 as the two hottest years ever recorded. What made 2024 particularly notable was an unprecedented series of extreme precipitation events that wreaked havoc across multiple continents. This finding comes from an international team of scientists led by Dr. Wenxia Zhang at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, who have been conducting annual reviews of global climate extremes since 2022.

“Most extreme events have a large random element in that they are subject to fluctuations in the weather, and occur when weather patterns set up in just the ‘right’ way. Some extremes are more likely when larger-scale drivers such as ENSO influence the weather patterns in a region,” explains Dr. James Risbey at CSIRO, coauthor of the study, in a statement.

In April, southern China experienced its second rainiest spring since the 1960s, with some regions receiving double their normal rainfall. The United Arab Emirates witnessed a historical deluge when Dubai recorded more rainfall in 24 hours than it typically sees in 75 years. Central Asia faced its worst flooding in seven decades, while Spain shattered national records when one region received nearly 772 millimeters of rain in just 14 hours.

Behind these dramatic events lay a complex interplay of natural climate patterns and human-induced warming. Many extreme rainfall and drought events in 2024 were linked to atmospheric configurations associated with the El Niño winter of 2023/24. “This is consistent with basic physical understanding that anthropogenic warming leads to increases in atmospheric moisture and evaporative demand, and hence, potentially enhances extreme rainfall and droughts, respectively,” explains Dr. Zhang.

The tropical cyclone season proved particularly devastating. Hurricane Milton struck Florida in October, becoming the fifth most intense Atlantic hurricane on record since 1851. Before that, Hurricane Helene caused significant damage along America’s East Coast, becoming the deadliest hurricane to strike the United States mainland since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The impact was especially severe in inland mountainous regions, where communities were less prepared for hurricane conditions. “The destructive impacts were partly due to the vulnerability of the underprepared community to a changing climate,” notes Dr. Zhuo Wang from the University of Illinois.

While some regions drowned, others thirsted. Panama’s crucial canal system struggled with historically low water levels, disrupting global shipping and causing losses estimated at $700 million. Southern Africa experienced one of its worst droughts in decades, affecting over 27 million people. Sicily and Sardinia saw agricultural yields plummet by up to 70% amid persistent dry conditions.

Most troubling was how these extremes sometimes whiplashed between opposite extremes. Northern China, for instance, pivoted dramatically from severe drought in June to devastating floods in July. These rapid transitions posed particular challenges for communities trying to adapt.

The research reveals both progress and challenges in understanding these events. “More accurate attribution of extreme events is expected to inform decision-making, ranging from post-disaster recovery to future preparedness,” says Dr. Michael Brody of George Mason University and the International Agricultural University.

However, forecasting alone isn’t enough. Researchers say warning systems must do a better job of demonstrating the dangers of such events and ensuring residents can take the appropriate actions with time to spare.

This point was tragically illustrated in Valencia, Spain, where October floods and mudslides led to widespread destruction despite weather warnings. The aftermath revealed how quickly extreme climate events can transform into public frustration and anger when warning systems and response mechanisms fail.

The scientific community’s focus has expanded beyond simply understanding these events to developing a more holistic approach to climate change. This includes improving prediction capabilities, warning systems, and community preparedness – essential elements in building climate resilience for an increasingly volatile future.